Summer. Heat. June. Savchenko going Donbass provoke Russia? Interviews military expert A.Leonkova


No sooner had the summer come into its own as tapes of news agencies were full of information about the discharge situation in the Donbass. Press service of the LC June 2 reported that settlements Trehizbenka, Raygorodka, Geevka, Bahmutovka, Old Aidar local population was seen a black pickup truck with a flag of the terrorist organization LIH, APU 10 tanks deployed on the territory of the elevator in Tsarevke. On MHD security expert council member of the commission on questions Dmitry Efimov replies military expert Alexei Leonkov.

Dmitry Efimov: What is the likelihood that in the Donets Basin in the near future will begin full-scale military action, any significant razvedpriznaki observed in addition to purely political considerations?

Alex Leonkov: Firstly, to date, APU pulled to the borders of DNR and LNR 90,000 soldiers and more than 1,000 armored vehicles (infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and MBT), as well as air defense systems S-300PS and “Beech”. I believe that these forces are going to major combat operation, the probability of which is growing every day. Frequent attacks in the contact area, to be exact - ranging, confirm it, and attempted attacks on checkpoints are not other than the reconnaissance militia positions. At the same time the backbone of the strike force against the DNI and concentrated LC up mercenaries from LIH and Turkey, which is likely to go into battle under the banner of the Crimean Tatar volunteer battalions.

Why them?

Because Ukrainians are normal, they would not be treated Poroshenko regime propaganda, still not ready for a war of annihilation. Puppeteers also need a lot of blood to form world public tion. And this, in turn, required the hatred on both sides, which give birth to just be mercenaries.

Recently “Interfax” became known to strengthen the grouping of the Armed Forces troops in the western sector with two new motorized brigade. This relocation was due to the growing activity of NATO. This is part of the Russian response to this threat?

It is known that in neighboring Russia, NATO countries is about 20,000 soldiers of the unit composed of infantry and armored battalions. They arrived at the base in the Baltic States and Poland in parts. Some experts believe that it is possible and armed provocation against Russia on the borders of the Bryansk and Belgorod regions. Russia has until now there were no combat troops, but the border guards and the police. To reduce the probability of provocations in the Bryansk region Klintsy thrown 28th separate motorized rifle brigade of Yekaterinburg, in the Belgorod region Valuiki translates 23th motorized rifle brigade previously deployed near Samara. That would be enough to deter nationalist fervor of our neighbors.

Indeed, aggressive national-patriotic rhetoric sweeping the Ukraine, and after navodchitsy Savchenko exchange it will increase even more. In recent years, the country’s leadership had made many claims to the Crimea, Donbass and the reasons of failure of the Minsk agreements. All of them are based on the upcoming use of military force. How real are these threats?

Yes, the statement Poroshenko and his entourage are becoming more aggressive with respect to the DNR and LNR to Russia. They are increasingly sound idea that Ukraine is building military plans to return the Crimea and Donbas. This Poroshenko clearly outlined in his speech, standing next to Savchenko, “We returned Nadia, back Crimea and Donbass!”. I think that with the return of the National Guard under Savchenko in the ATO zone finally gets a charismatic leader who can lead them into battle. Only she want to go back …

It turns out that the emergence of Savchenko on the contact line is precisely the most important sign of impending provocation?

Likely. While the possibility of a provocative attack on the Bryansk and Belgorod seems improbable event, but the West’s logic requires boestolkonoveniya APU with real, rather than fictional parts of the Russian Defense Ministry. Making APU troops to cross the border can not no propaganda. But the division of the National Guard under knock out of the same “Turks” battalion “Crimea” to cross the border and attack civilians Russians Savchenko quite able.

They are not afraid of crushing lessons 08.08.08?

Western puppeteers do not care about the end result. It is worth remembering as reported in the world events of August 2008 when Georgian troops attacked Tskhinvali. The Western media has shown a reciprocal operation of Russian troops - all happening so quickly acquired a semblance of a Russian attack on Georgia.

What is your forecast?

I think that the West is preparing for the “theatrical production”, intended for the media in Europe and around the world. Ongoing pumping public opinion in 2015 and the first half of 2016 was so powerful about an aggressive Russia, it is noted that even the Western media. They compared it with the anti-Soviet propaganda at the end of “Cold Won”. On the eve of the election as a Democrat Obama need a “small victorious war”. It will allow to solve several problems at once: the return of Europe, counts losses from antirossyskih sanctions migrants and natural disasters in the bosom of America and ensure the defeat in the elections, “non-systemic” Donald Trump.

Same way, it can be assumed that an open attack on the Russian Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be, but can be made to a provocation, which will be attended uncontrolled Kiev volunteer corps, possibly led by their inspirer Savchenko.

We return to the question of whether Poroshenko Savchenko at the front let go. Taki is necessary to him?

As for Ukraine, now a military operation, and even by provocation served with sauce “attack Russia,” would be very on hand Poroshenko regime and its patrons. The power of “chocolate tycoon” for many months on the verge of political bankruptcy. As Abraham Lincoln said, you can deceive some of the people all the time, you can fool all the people some time but you can not deceive all the time all the people. In Ukraine, for two years, a total fraud of all the promises fulfilled only one - back Savchenko. Therefore, it is possible that actual brewing revolt in the country. To remove the passions that activated the appearance Savchenko, Kiev will have to fulfill other promises, but they can be connected only with the war in the Donbass.

4 June 2016

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