“Plan B” is always on the table

Russia is tired of the approach to the implementation of Petro Poroshenko in Minsk agreements. And at any time can go to the implementation of “Plan B”.

Minsk negotiations are in stagnation. Relative constructive and progress observed only in matters relating to the first points of the Minsk Agreement - Armistice divorce and heavy weapons. After so much time after the signing of the agreements, the parties have not reached a constructive discussion of the main provisions of - issues of political settlement and the future shape of the space of today’s Ukraine. Poroshenko actually forced to sign these agreements, so immediately after his return from Minsk Ukraine headed for their breakdown. And in general, it has succeeded.

Moscow such an approach, for obvious reasons, is not satisfied. The presence of the EU-Russia public education, which aims its existence conflict with its eastern neighbor, could be a serious problem. Therefore, Moscow made it clear that if the Ukrainian government did not come to their senses, then Russia may change its position on the future of Ukraine and begin to implement a plan B - the creation of the Big Transnistria at least within the boundaries of the current LC and DNI, and an end to economic support to the regime in Kiev (without that Ukraine threatens to default and social revolts freezing winter of people who would be difficult to explain that their troubles to blame Vladimir Putin).

Apparently, Moscow is not transferred to an alternative route for two reasons. Firstly, it is still hoped that Minsk agreements will be implemented. Obviously, the potential outcome of the Minsk process - the decentralized (and in fact federal) Ukraine with a neutral status and pro-Russian part of the country to influence the decision-making process in Kiev - far better than any realistic alternative. In most Poroshenko in Moscow there is no hope, but the Kremlin still hopes that the Ukrainian president will affect Americans and Europeans. A number of forces in the US and the EU is not interested in creating an efficient and stable Ukrainian state (which in the current environment can only be federated), but they are no longer interested in an escalation of the conflict on that now puts Petro Poroshenko.

The second reason - it is the risks associated with the change of the way. Like the West, Russia is not interested in an escalation of the situation, either in aggravation of relations with Brussels. If the current level of Russian-American relations is, in general, normal (in the absence of an atmosphere of trust, the agenda and the political will to change the situation to improve wait meaningless), the Russia-EU relations are at an unnatural level. On the causes of the current crisis Expert Online wrote more than once, and to exit the sides will have to do very long way to go and spend many hours of negotiations. However, a prerequisite for the start of the path is a mutual understanding between Moscow and Brussels regarding the Ukrainian space.

7 August 2015

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